[olug] OT: evil poll

[Christopher Cashell]

I hadn't planned on responding to any e-mails here, regardless of
whether they were replies to mine or not, just because politics is
guaranteed to get us caught up in an argument, but since this point is
somewhat separate from the politics, I'll address this point.

On Wed, Oct 29, 2008 at 9:58 PM, T. J. Brumfield <enderandrew at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Wed, Oct 29, 2008 at 9:52 PM, Christopher Cashell
> <topher-olug at zyp.org> wrote:
>> The first was McCain's appointment of Sarah Palin.  John McCain is 72
>> years old, and the average life expectancy in the US for men is about
>> 75 years.  That means that statistically, McCain will most likely die
>> before he finishes his term as president, if elected.  And I think
>
> If you don't like Palin, you don't like Palin.  I can certainly
> understand that.  However I don't think it is fair to speculate he is
> going to die of old age.  Most people retire, and then lead inactive
> lives at his age.  Most people aren't rich, and don't have excellent
> health care.  McCain is active, is rich, has excellent heath care, and
> has a healthy, active mother in her late 90's.

I'm not speaking above to specific details about McCain, I'm going
100% based on statistical probability.  The fact is that the average
lifespan (average across all males) in the US is approximately 75
years of age.  That means that statistically, based on the average
lifespan for males in the US, McCain is more likely to die before the
end of his term than he is to complete his term.

Now, if you do want to get into specifics, you can argue that he is
active for his age, rich, can afford excellent health care, etc.  But
you also have to consider that he's 72 years old (note, we have never
had a first term president elected that was as old as McCain is), he
has had 4 bouts with skin cancer, and has had some rough experiences
in his life.  I'm considering all of it something of a wash, and
falling back on simple statistical probability.

> Active people tend to live longer.  It isn't a given he is just going
> to up and die in the next four years.

I never said it was a given.  Just that it was statistically probable.
 Regardless, the risk is very much real enough to concern (scare) me.

> -- T, J,

-- 
Christopher