[olug] RE: The Novell bet

[Bob McCoy]

Ah, yes.  Let's say the magic "L" word and maybe all our troubles will
go away.  I hope they can pull it off.  But if tomorrow Microsoft, Sun,
or IBM came out and said what Novell said in their SEC filing -- that it
would not provide specific revenue forecasts for the remainder of fiscal
year 2003 or future periods -- you'd be singing a different tune.  

Your loyalty is admirable.  But when the company actually tells the SEC
not to expect any revenue forecasts, it's in trouble.

Bob

-----Original Message-----
From: olug-bounces at olug.org [mailto:olug-bounces at olug.org] On Behalf Of
Bill Brush
Sent: Friday, June 27, 2003 9:34 PM
To: Omaha Linux User Group
Subject: RE: [olug] Linux, Networks and NFS/NIS



Ok, their stock is low, and profits are down.   That's true of 90%
(probably more than that actually) of the technology and software
companies.  Of all the major PC manufacturers only Dell turned a profit
in the last year.  AMD has had something like one profitable quarter in
the last 5 years.  If you want to see bad stock fluctuations look at
Priceline. The last time I checked it was under $2 from a high of $130.
I think you'd be hard pressed to find a single technology or software
company who's profits and stock prices are up.  You'd probably be hard
pressed to find many companies who are even reporting a profit.

People have been predicting Novell's demise for the last 8 years and
they're still here.  They aren't alone either (Sun, Oracle, EMC, and
Cisco have all hit hard times) I am generally skeptical of company
market-speak, but Novell has actually shown some signs of having a plan
(something lacking previously).  They have a new marketing campaign
aimed at the money men.  They have a business-friendly cross-platform
strategy and they're embracing open standards.  In case you missed it,
later this year they're releasing a services software package for Linux.
>From a technical merit standpoint anyone who's actually used their
products for any length of time
is a fan of them (generally).   They're stable and reliable.

Sounds to me like a company that is in the same market downturn as
everyone else in the IT field, and  that has a plan to move out of it.

Of course YMMV.

Bill





>Novell's largest profit this quarter will come from selling $120M worth

>of their office space in Silicon Valley.  I'm sorry, but tht sounds 
>like a company in trouble to me.




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